Economists cut Singapore, Hong Kong growth outlook on trade risks

Economists have lowered growth forecasts for Singapore and Hong Kong in the second half of 2025, citing rising risks from higher US tariffs on Chinese exports, according to a Bloomberg survey. Singapore’s third- and fourth-quarter growth is projected at 1.3% and 1.6%, down from stronger first-half estimates of 4.1% and 3.9%. Hong Kong’s outlook was also revised downward, with growth now expected at 2.6% and 2.4% in the last two quarters, compared to earlier forecasts of 3.2% and 3.1%. Analysts warn that escalating US-China trade tensions under a second Trump administration pose downside risks, particularly for trade-dependent economies. The Hong Kong government maintains a 2-3% growth estimate for 2025, but economists expect expansion near the lower end due to weak Chinese demand.