Global bonds are witnessing their largest monthly gain since 2008, driven by speculation that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are nearing the end of their rate-hiking cycles. November saw a 4.9% rise, bolstered by dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller. This surge marks a turnaround in a volatile year for bonds, with the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Total Return index recovering from a 3.8% decline to a 1.4% increase in 2023. U.S. Treasury yields have fallen, and Australian bonds rallied following weak inflation data. Corporate bonds also improved, with narrowed spreads and lowered yields. However, there’s a disconnect between credit investors’ optimism and rate traders’ more cautious outlook, awaiting further guidance from the Federal Reserve.
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