Thailand’s economy grew 2.5% in 2024, below the 2.7% forecast and lagging regional peers despite a pickup from 2% in 2023, official data showed. Fourth-quarter GDP rose 3.2% year-on-year, missing a 3.8% estimate, while quarter-on-quarter growth was 0.4%, below the 0.5% forecast. Despite a recovery in tourism and exports, weak household consumption and manufacturing kept growth subdued. Thailand remains vulnerable to US-China trade tensions, with a significant trade surplus with the US and rising imports of cheap Chinese goods. The Bank of Thailand sees trade policy spillovers as a key risk. Thailand, which had a USD35.4bn trade surplus with the US in 2024, plans to boost imports of US ethane and agricultural products to avoid potential tariffs under a renewed Trump trade policy.